Try adjusting your counterweight. It may be set too far back and not giving enough weight to,the headshell. This can cause it to move outward.
Is the antiskate adjustable?
I don't see where you're coming from here; the counterweight should be positioned to balance the tonearm horizontally, before the vertical tracking forceis applied. If the OP moves the counter weight forward this will increase the VTF.
The position of the counterweight cannot cause the arm to move outward. The anti-skate will cause it to move outward, in this case the OP has a problem due to reduced friction because the arm lift has hardened, allowing the antiskate to move the arm in the raised position.
OK, I haven't had this problem but there are products which can rejuvenate rubber, which may help, and there have recently been posts about this...... viewtopic.php?f=19&t=47580